College Football Betting
LSU vs. Auburn, Unbeaten SEC powers square off
2010-10-23
Sportsbook.com’s LSU vs. Auburn Betting Odds: Auburn -6, Total: 51.5
The two remaining SEC unbeaten teams meet Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. LSU has won four of its games by seven points or less this year. Auburn has also had some close calls, winning three games by exactly three points.
LSU’s unblemished record is puzzling, considering the Tigers have 2.4 turnovers per game and have yet to reach 225 passing yards in any of the seven contests. LSU has been lucky, but it has also been very good on defense, ranking third in the nation with just 242 YPG allowed. The Tigers are sixth against the run (84 YPG) and eighth in passing defense (159 YPG).
LSU has not yet faced a player that is the caliber of Auburn QB Cameron Newton. The Heisman front-runner is averaging 305 YPG of total offense with 13 TD and five INT. Newton’s 124 rushing YPG leads an Auburn team ranked sixth in the nation in rushing offense (284 YPG) and sixth in scoring (40.7 PPG). Newton has led Auburn to a whopping 47.3 PPG average in its last four games.
LSU is 6-3 ATS in its past nine games at Auburn, but these football betting trends found at Sportsbook.com show that the odds are not in Les Miles’ favor on Saturday. Two trends backing Auburn include:
Miles is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 27.3, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*).
Miles is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 28.3, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 2*).
For ‘total’ bettors, this tend points towards the ‘under’:
Play Under - Any team against the total (AUBURN) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in October games. (145-80 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +57 units. Rating = 3*).
Head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your weekend college football betting. While you are there remember to place your selections for this weekend’s $100,000 Perfect Parlay contest.
NCAA Football Awards Preview for 2010 Season
2010-08-17
Here are some more of the highly sought after college football awards and a preview of who the top candidates for each award are. Staying ahead of the game in the awards is important for every college football bettor.
Mackey Award (Top Tight End)- Heading into the season, there are many candidates capable of having breakout years and winning the award, including DJ Williams, Ben Guidugli, and Wesley Saunders. However, my two frontrunners are Kyle Rudolph and George Bryan, who both had very impressive seasons as sophomores last year. Rudolph was part of the high-octane offense at Notre Dame that included Golden Tate, Jimmy Clausen and, Michael Floyd. Although his 33 catches, 364 yards, and three touchdowns look rather pedestrian, he was usually the third offensive option. He has a tremendous combination of size and speed and with Tate now gone, he has the potential to vastly increase his numbers. Bryan has excellent size at 6’6” and 270 pounds and posted numbers superior to those of Rudolph. He has a nose for the end zone, scoring six touchdowns to go along with 40 receptions and 422 yards.
Thorpe Award (Best Defensive Back)- There will be a litany of playmaking defensive backs in college football this year, led by UCLA safety Rahim Moore, a reigning first team All-American whose ten interceptions led all of college football last season. DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson also has an amazing nose for the ball, as is evidenced by his eight interceptions last season. The list goes on and includes Mark Barron’s seven interceptions and Tyler Sash and his six picks. The one guy who should contend for this award but doesn’t have the interception totals of the others is Patrick Peterson. At 6’1” and 211 pounds with excellent ball skills and speed, Peterson is the epitome of a shutdown cornerback. His relatively low total of interceptions isn’t the mark of poor playmaking ability but rather an unwillingness of other teams to throw in his direction. Except for Sash, all the others play safety and have more opportunity to make their interceptions. This will be an intriguing race and the result should reflect just how much of a premium the voters place on interception totals.
Doak Walker Award (Running Back)- As the returning Heisman Trophy winner, one might expect Mark Ingram to run away with this award. However, that won’t be even remotely close to the case. It could be argued that he’s not even the overall favorite to win. Ingram’s backup, Trent Richardson, is an outstanding player who will garner more carries and perhaps cut into Ingram’s touches a little bit. Although 1,658 yards and 17 touchdowns on 271 carries is excellent by any standards, Ingram largely won the Heisman as a result of being the best player on the best team in college football. Nevertheless, Ingram is a unique talent and will undoubtedly be in the running. The list of challengers is lengthy and includes Jacquizz Rodgers, LaMichael James, Evan Royster, Ryan Williams, Dion Lewis, and Noel Devine; I think the two headliners from that cluster are Rodgers and Lewis. Although Rodgers is small, he is tough and very skilled in the red zone, scoring 21 touchdowns on the ground last season with 1,440 rushing yards. Perhaps what sets him apart is his versatility and skills as a receiver. He caught an astounding 78 passes last season, a number that would lead almost any team in college football. If Jacquizz and his brother James were able to win their respective position awards in the same year, it would be the first time that two brothers accomplished that feat. Dion Lewis is a formidable roadblock for the Rodgers’ chances, though. He absolutely dazzled as a true freshman last year, rushing for 1799 yards and 17 touchdowns. He only got better as the season went on and there’s no telling how good he could be as a sophomore. The wild-card candidate may be Noel Devine, regarded by many as the most explosive and perhaps fastest of any player in college football. He is a threat to break a long run any time he touches the ball and has a definite “wow” factor. He rushed for 1,465 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and averaged 6.1 yards a carry, the same as Ingram. If he has a few more highlight-reel runs this year, he may stamp himself as a contender in the eyes of voters.
Mark Ingram is the early favorite for the Heisman Trophy this coming season at www.sportsbook.com with a +350 line. Bet on the next Heisman and more Sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
CFB: Fiesta Bowl - BOISE STATE vs. TCU (8:10 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-04
Two of this year’s bowl games were rematches of a year ago. For Boise State and TCU, the stakes are much higher this time, as the teams step up from the Poinsettia to Fiesta Bowl. Strangely there’s no Goliath in this battle of two “David’s,” with both teams having crashed the BCS party by going unbeaten. Of course, with pointspreads in play, one team has to play the role of favorite, and that is TCU (-8). That line seems to have done its job, as according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page, action was split down the middle at last check.
The Horned Frogs were dominant on both sides of the ball, and boast the country’s No. 2-ranked defense in yards per play. Boise State did its best work on offense, scoring 44.2 points per game, ranking No. 1 nationally. In terms of bowl success, it’s all TCU, which owns a 5-1 SU and ATS record in its L6. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in their L5.
Many of us would like to have seen these non-automatic qualifying teams compete against BCS conference teams, especially since the two met just one year ago with TCU defeating Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, 17-16. Regardless, the Fiesta Bowl still presents an interesting matchup. The Horned Frogs have a dominating defense, allowing just 12.4 points and 233 yards per game. TCU can also put points on the board, winning by 36.6 points per game and going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS down the stretch. Nobody has been better on the offensive end this season than the Broncos, however, who average a nation-best 44.2 points per game. Sixty-eight percent of the public is backing Boise State as of press time. I’ll call for a dominant TCU victory as defense wins out. TCU 41, Boise State 24.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TCU 37.0, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
FIESTA BOWL Series Trend: Five different conferences boast Fiesta Bowl victories over the last five seasons, not a surprising trend considering underdogs are on a 6-2 ATS run in the series. In past Fiesta Bowl games with pointspreads of 5.5-points or more, the underdog has covered seven of nine. This year’s line shows TCU -6.5. In regards to totals, where the posted number closes is a strong indicator of the result, as in games with posted numbers of 5 or higher, the UNDER is 6-2, in games below 51, the OVER is 7-2.
CFB: Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (7:30E ESPN)
2009-12-31
The highlight game on the day's schedule is the Chick-Fil-A bowl matchup between Virginia Tech and Tennessee. This bowl game is known for ringing in the New Year, and for the last four years, it has been done with upsets by the SEC team. Can the Volunteers make it five in a row as 5.5-point underdogs, or will the Hokies put the win back in the ledger of the ACC? According to 92% of bettors at Sportsbook.com, Tennessee has a good chance of winning against the spread and on the money line.
The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven't been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.
Why watch and wager - For each of these teams, the goal is the same it's just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The StatFox Power Line shows Virginia Tech by 6. Expect a good game either way.
CFB: St. Petersburg Bowl; UCF vs. RUTGERS (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-18
The second annual St. Petersburg Bowl game from the Tropicana Dome is a battle of Knights, UCF’s Knights vs. the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rutgers, out of the Big East, is a 2.5-point favorite for this second of 34-bowl games, according to Sportsbook.com. UCF comes out of Conference USA, and most bettors, 86% of them, think the conference strength difference will be what decides this game.
The Golden Knights of UCF were one of the country’s most effective teams against the pointspread this season, going 9-2. They’ll come into this game having rather quietly won five of their L6 games outright as well. Still, they are a slight underdog to a Rutgers team that finished 8-4 in 2009 out of the Big East. The bowl histories of these teams are very different, as UCF is seeking its first ever bowl-game win, and is playing in just its third postseason contest. The Scarlet Knights have won three straight bowl games, all as favorites. They boast a 24-12 ATS record in non-conference games under head coach Greg Schiano.
These two teams will be facing off in sunny Florida, yet playing indoors gives no real home-field advantage to UCF. In my opinion the teams come in with pretty much the same seasons behind them as far as stats go. The deciding factor in this game will be conference strength and a price that doesn’t reflect it. Rutgers has forced a ton of turnovers this year so look for the Scarlet Knight to do so once again here. The StatFox Power Rating line indicates Rutgers should be a seven-point favorite. Take advantage of that and watch the chalk jump to an early lead and win by nine or more.
Top StatFox ATS Trend
George O'Leary is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was O'Leary 25.5, OPPONENT 32.1 - (Rating = 2*)
Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UCF) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA), in non-conference games. (40-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
ST PETERSBURG BOWL Series Trend: Last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl game was the first college bowl game hosted at “The Trop”, better known as the home of baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa-based South Florida was an unofficial “host” for that game, and didn’t show Memphis much hospitality, routing the Tigers 41-14 as a 10.5-point favorite. UCF would have a “regional” advantage, but Rutgers is still the favorite.
Betting on the next series of conference clashes
2009-12-04
With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started. Get more key wagering information for these games on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com.
Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2
Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.
Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face its first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.
Sportsbook.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.
StatFox Power Line – Washington by 2
USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2
Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.
Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is a 20.5-point favorite and is 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.
StatFox Power Line – Texas by 14
CFB: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-11-13
ABC has a dandy of a game on tap for Saturday night, but what’s strange about it is that Notre Dame is the so-called feature attraction against a Pittsburgh team that has its eye on the Big East title. Apparently there are still non-believers in the Panthers, and we will find out for sure how good they really are in the next few weeks. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point home favorite for players at Sportsbook.com. Early returns see 65% of betting action headed in that direction.
Notre Dame saw its BCS bowl aspirations drown in an upset loss to Navy, 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 ½ games of the season. With Golden Tate having an All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been in awhile. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dame’s defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.
Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, who’s blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stull’s jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nation’s first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.
The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.
StatFox Steve has an opinion on this game in the Platinum Sheet: This is one of the first times this season where I believe Notre Dame is being undersold. Granted, Pittsburgh is playing very well, but I believe that this line is more reflective on what happened last week than anything. Had this game been played prior to Pitt’s rout of Syracuse and Notre Dame’s loss to Navy, I think we’d be looking at a line of about 3-1/2 points. This system reflects more on what could be a one-week overreaction: Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season. (35-12 since 1992.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*). The Irish still can score points behind one of the nation’s best QB’s, and they have shown a gritty ability to come back regardless of the score or circumstances. I don’t think Pitt has enough punch to put this team away fully. Play: Notre Dame +6.5
Get more on this contest on the GAME MATCHUPS page at Sportsbook.com.
College-footballbetting.com is the site for those who like to bet on college football.
Our daily articles focus on all the top games of the week and our stats and trends give you all the betting information you need to succeed right at your fingertips.